SPECIAL WARNING
General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
LIVE IMAGERY — CLOUDS • PRECIPITATION • TEMPERATURE • WIND
Synoptic Evolution across the Atlantic and Europe
Updated 7 November 2026
Belgium remains under the influence of a continental air mass, overlain by a weak upper-level occlusion which continues to bring occasional cloud cover and some localised light rain.
Over the next 48 hours, a 1031 hPa anticyclone will gradually shift its centre from eastern Europe towards the Black Sea. This movement will encourage a light southerly to south-easterly airflow, bringing temperatures generally close to the seasonal average.
Under these relatively settled conditions, sunny intervals should become increasingly widespread. Nevertheless, residual moisture and overnight cooling in the lower atmosphere will continue to favour the development of mist and fog, sometimes extensive, during the night and early morning.
From Tuesday onwards, however, the weather pattern is expected to undergo a marked change. A deep Atlantic depression, with a central pressure ranging between 979 and 986 hPa, will move progressively closer to the Bay of Biscay, becoming the dominant feature of the atmospheric circulation across western Europe.
An associated frontal system will then reach northern France and our regions, before slowing considerably and becoming almost stationary until Thursday.
This frontal boundary will mark a pronounced thermal divide between two contrasting air masses. To the south, remarkably mild air for the time of year will spread across France, while farther north, significantly cooler, and locally even cold, continental air will continue to dominate central and northern parts of the Benelux and parts of Germany.
Towards the end of the week, a further rearrangement of the main pressure systems could bring another change in the weather. A 1022 hPa anticyclone is expected to establish itself to the north of the British Isles, gradually pushing the frontal system southwards.
Our regions would consequently return to a drier north-easterly airflow, with decreasing cloud cover and precipitation, although temperatures would remain distinctly on the cool side for the time of year.
Probable weather evolution over Europe Likely trend (based on mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns)
https://www.bmcb.be/trend-europe-europa/
Synoptic evolution across Europe from 12 to 18 November 2026
Updated 5 November 2026
Between mild Atlantic air, a brief anticyclonic interlude and the return of oceanic disturbances, Western Europe is expected to experience a succession of contrasting weather patterns around mid-November.
Initially, an Atlantic low-pressure system will steer mild, moist and unsettled maritime air towards our regions, bringing successive spells of rain.
Around 14–15 November, however, the large-scale atmospheric circulation is expected to undergo a noticeable change. Another depression would move towards Scandinavia, while an anticyclone establishes itself to the west of Scotland. This pressure pattern would encourage the arrival of cooler but more stable air, bringing a temporary spell of quieter weather to our regions.
By around 16 November, the high-pressure system would gradually shift towards Germany before moving farther south into Southern Europe. This evolution would initially turn the airflow southerly, followed by a rapid veer towards the southwest.
Western Europe would consequently return to a milder, but increasingly unsettled Atlantic regime, heralding the arrival of further weather disturbances from the ocean.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
https://www.bmcb.be/national-t2m-indicator/
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Temperature outlook for Belgium from 7 to 20 November 2026
According to the Belgian National Thermal Indicator, based on the BMCB multi-model forecasting system
Updated 7 November 2026
Following a relatively chilly start to November, Belgium looks set to experience a succession of temperature fluctuations, with brief spells of milder weather alternating with noticeably colder conditions, particularly during the night.
Over the coming days, the National Thermal Indicator is expected to remain between 0 and –3, reflecting temperatures generally below the seasonal average. Daytime highs will mostly range from 5 to 12°C, while overnight lows will vary between –2 and +5°C, depending on the region.
A noticeable return to milder conditions is expected on Wednesday 11 November. The indicator could temporarily climb to +3, as a milder air mass spreads across the country. Afternoon temperatures may consequently reach 8 to 15°C, offering a particularly pleasant interlude for the time of year.
However, this milder spell is unlikely to last. Between 12 and 16 November, a renewed cooling trend is expected, bringing the indicator back down to values between 0 and –2. Daytime temperatures should then range from 5 to 12°C, while overnight minima could fall to between –4 and +4°C.
In eastern Belgium, the nights may even take on a distinctly wintry character. Under clear skies and light winds, strong radiative cooling would encourage cold air to accumulate in sheltered valleys. In these frost-prone locations, temperatures could locally plunge to between –4 and –10°C.
From 17 November onwards, another return to milder conditions appears increasingly possible. As suggested by the previous forecast update, the BMCB multi-model system indicates a rise in the thermal indicator towards +2 to +3. Afternoon temperatures could consequently recover to 7 to 13°C across Belgium, while overnight and early-morning frosts would tend to disappear.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
SUNNY SPELLS, LINGERING FOG AND THE FIRST OVERNIGHT FROSTS BEFORE ATLANTIC SYSTEMS RETURN
BMCB WEATHER UPDATE – 5 NOVEMBER 2026
Forecast for 5–18 November – BMCB multimodel guidance: ICON, AIFS and ECMWF
The opening days of this period will remain largely dry, rather chilly and occasionally sunny, although morning fog may prove persistent in some areas. Overnight frosts will become increasingly likely, particularly across eastern Belgium and in the Ardennes valleys, where locally moderate frost is possible.
From Monday 9 November onwards, conditions will gradually turn wetter and more unsettled. Atlantic rain-bearing systems will return, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday, accompanied by a modest rise in temperatures.
Between 12 and 18 November, Atlantic weather patterns are expected to regain influence, bringing alternating spells of rain, brighter intervals and fluctuating temperatures. Following a cooler interlude around 14–15 November, another influx of milder air could bring notably mild conditions around 18 November, although accompanied by increasingly wet weather.
SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Updated 6 November 2026
Atlantic influence may persist into late November, with calmer conditions possible in early December
23–29 November — Mild conditions likely to persist amid unsettled weather
The final week of November could see oceanic airflows continuing to dominate much of Western Europe. Against this backdrop, Atlantic weather systems would continue to sweep across the region in succession.
Although forecast confidence is gradually declining as the various model scenarios begin to diverge, one broad trend nevertheless appears to be emerging: relatively mild conditions may persist, with temperatures generally remaining above the seasonal average.
At present, there is little indication of a prolonged cold spell, although brief incursions of cooler air cannot be entirely ruled out.
30 November–6 December — Could a quieter, drier spell be on the horizon?
As December approaches, the atmosphere may gradually settle into a more tranquil pattern. A possible strengthening of high pressure could encourage a return to more stable and drier weather conditions.
Atlantic disturbances would consequently find it increasingly difficult to penetrate far into the European mainland.
Such a development might bring a modest fall in temperatures, although there is currently little to suggest the arrival of a significant wintry outbreak. Overall, temperatures would probably remain slightly above the seasonal norm.
Considerable caution is nevertheless required: at this extended range, these projections should be regarded as broad atmospheric trends rather than detailed or reliable forecasts.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 25-10-26
November 2026: persistent mildness, with less rainfall than previously expected
Synoptic background: High-pressure conditions may become more frequent than initially anticipated, restricting the passage of Atlantic weather systems. Overall, conditions are expected to remain mild, with alternating settled spells and more unsettled episodes, particularly during the second half of the month.
Temperatures: approximately 1.5°C above the seasonal average, indicating a well-established signal for milder-than-normal conditions. Brief cooler interludes remain possible, but there is currently little indication of any prolonged cold spell.
Precipitation: totals close to the seasonal average. This represents a shift towards a less unsettled and less rainfall-dominated November than previously forecast, without any significant signal for unusually dry conditions.
December 2026: exceptionally mild and wetter than average
Synoptic background: A likely strengthening of the Atlantic circulation would favour the passage of successive weather systems, accompanied by predominantly south-westerly winds bringing mild, moisture-laden maritime air.
Temperatures: approximately 2°C above the seasonal average, suggesting even more pronounced mildness than in November, despite the possibility of occasional short-lived cooler spells.
Precipitation: around 14% above average, with regular spells of rain associated with passing Atlantic disturbances.
January 2027: less pronounced mildness, with increasing uncertainty
Synoptic background: Atmospheric circulation patterns may become more variable, allowing occasional periods of high pressure as well as temporary incursions of colder air.
Temperatures: approximately 1°C above the seasonal average. A milder-than-normal scenario remains the most likely outcome, although forecast confidence decreases considerably at this longer lead time.
Precipitation: around 11% above average, suggesting a modest rainfall surplus, although the signal is less pronounced than in December.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)